TAMPA, Fla. (WFLA) — Researchers at Colorado State University are now forecasting an “above-average” Atlantic hurricane season due in part to record warm sea surface across much of the Atlantic.
The updated forecast predicts 18 named storms, nine hurricanes, and four major hurricanes — that’s five more named storms, three more hurricanes, and two more major hurricanes than CSU’s initial predictions.
But researchers warned there’s more uncertainty than normal with their latest outlook.
CSU pointed to “conflicting signals” between the warmer than normal Atlantic waters and a robust El Niño, which increases vertical wind shear, tearing storms apart as they form. Philip Klotzbach, who authored the forecast, said the extreme warmth in the Atlantic may counteract some of the typical El Niño-driven wind shear, leading to more storms.
Max Defender 8 Meteorologist Amanda Holly said in general, experts are predicting that the warmer waters of the Atlantic will win out.
“Time is going to tell with this season,” Holly said. “Every single day we’re seeing the atmosphere evolve. Like I said, the Saharan dust — a late arrival — now would be the time that we see that Saharan dust start to taper off, but we’re just starting to see these thicker plumes.”
The dust has led to a lull in tropical activity, however, WIAT Meteorologist Michael Haynes cautioned the quiet month of July could paint a deceptive picture for the rest of the hurricane season.
“Just because it is quiet right now, it doesn’t mean it will remain that way, and we don’t want folks to get complacent and just write off hurricane season,” Haynes said. “This is hurricane season, and things can change very quickly when we lose that Saharan layer.”
“As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them,” Klotzbach said.
An updated forecast is expected to be released on Aug. 3. The full report can be found below.
The 2023 Atlantic Basin hurricane season officially began on June 1, and ends on Nov. 30. This season’s potential hurricane names include:
Don, Emily, Franklin, Gert, Harold, Idalia, Jose, Katia, Lee, Margot, Nigel, Ophelia, Philippe, Rina, Sean, Tammy, Vince, and Whitney.
