The countdown to Selection Sunday is on, with teams’ hopes of dancing vanishing every day in conference tournaments across the country. During championship week, Sports Illustrated will bring you daily updates of how the projected field is moving with every result. But ahead of the first automatic bids being earned this weekend and regular seasons wrapping up in power conferences, here’s the latest look at the projected bracket and notes on what teams need to do to punch their ticket to the NCAA tournament.
On the Bubble
Last Four Byes:
West Virginia Mountaineers
Baylor Bears
Indiana Hoosiers
San Diego State Aztecs
Last Four In:
Ohio State Buckeyes
Oklahoma Sooners
Arkansas Razorbacks
Xavier Musketeers
First Four Out:
North Carolina Tar Heels
Boise State Broncos
Texas Longhorns
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Next Four Out:
UC Irvine Anteaters
Colorado State Rams
SMU Mustangs
North Texas Mean Green
In all, it has been a good few days for bubble teams, making the calculus surrounding the cut line more complicated. Despite its 5–12 record in the SEC, Oklahoma is in the field with a few spots of breathing room after its win over Missouri. A win at Texas on Saturday would likely punch the Sooners’ ticket, or at least ensure they’d be in my projected field on Selection Sunday. Xavier and North Carolina are neck and neck for the last spot, with very similar résumés across the board. For now, I stuck with the Musketeers, who have a better top-end win (at Marquette) and no Quad 3 loss, than the Heels. North Carolina gets a monster opportunity against Duke on Saturday though that could lock it into the field with a win. And don’t sleep on Boise State potentially playing its way into the field in the next few days.
Outside that group, we’re looking at a win-and-in game Saturday in Bloomington, Ind., between Ohio State and Indiana, with the other sweating in a big way. Arkansas might stay in with a loss to Mississippi State, but the path gets much more precarious especially with the potential for bid-stealer situations. Texas kept its hopes alive with a road win at Mississippi State, but the Longhorns will desperately need to win against Oklahoma to climb into the field.
* indicates a projected automatic qualifier
South Region
No. 1 Auburn Tigers* vs. No. 16 SEMO Redhawks*/Bucknell Bison*
No. 8 UConn Huskies vs. No. 9 New Mexico Lobos*
No. 5 Michigan Wolverines vs. No. 12 High Point Panthers*
No. 4 Kentucky Wildcats vs. No. 13 Chattanooga Mocs*
No. 6 Louisville Cardinals vs. No. 11 San Diego State Aztecs
No. 3 Wisconsin Badgers vs. No. 14 Northern Colorado Bears*
No. 7 Memphis Tigers* vs. No. 10 Indiana Hoosiers
No. 2 Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. No. 15 Towson Tigers*
The newest addition to the No. 2 line is Texas Tech, buoyed by yet another monster road win in a season full of them for this team. The Red Raiders now have seven road wins in Big 12 play, including elite ones at Houston, BYU and Kansas. They should be well positioned to land on the No. 2 line if they can finish strong with a win at Arizona State this weekend.
Oregon is back up to a No. 5 seed as its bizarre season continues. The Ducks were once in the top two-to-three-seed line mix after a 15–2 start, then had a five-game skid that knocked their Big Ten record to just 5–8 before six straight wins to charge back up the seed list. Quality metrics don’t love the Ducks, but with five Quad 1A wins and no losses outside Quad 1, it feels likely they’ll earn a strong seed on Selection Sunday.
East Region
No. 1 Duke Blue Devils* vs. No. 16 Quinnipiac Bobcats*/Southern Jaguars*
No. 8 Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. No. 9 Utah State Aggies
No. 5 Missouri Tigers vs. No. 12 McNeese State Cowboys*
No. 4 Purdue Boilermakers vs. No. 13 Akron Zips*
No. 6 Ole Miss Rebels vs. No. 11 Drake Bulldogs*
No. 3 Iowa State Cyclones vs. No. 14 Jacksonville State Gamecocks*
No. 7 Illinois Fighting Illini vs. No. 10 Baylor Bears
No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide vs. No. 15 Robert Morris Colonials*
Just as it looked like Iowa State had turned a corner after a strong showing against Arizona, the Cyclones took another step back with a home loss to a surging BYU team. Since their 15–1 start, Iowa State is just 7–7, with only one win in that stretch against a projected NCAA tournament team. The résumé is strong enough from early in the season to withstand some of that, but a continued limp to the finish could drop them down more and potentially knock them out of their preferred first-round pod in Milwaukee.
Illinois is back onto the No. 7 line after its road win at Michigan on Sunday in blowout fashion. The Illini are a fascinating team to seed, having played 24 Q1+2 games this season (tied for most in the country) and sporting very strong quality metrics and three outstanding road/neutral wins. Climbing higher may require a win over Purdue on Friday though.
Midwest Region
No. 1 Houston Cougars* vs. No. 16 Norfolk State Spartans*
No. 8 Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. No. 9 Creighton Bluejays
No. 5 Marquette Golden Eagles vs. No. 12 Oklahoma Sooners/Ohio State Buckeyes
No. 4 Clemson Tigers vs. No. 13 Yale Bulldogs*
No. 6 Maryland Terrapins vs. No. 11 VCU Rams*
No. 3 St. John’s Red Storm* vs. No. 14 South Alabama Jaguars*
No. 7 UCLA Bruins vs. No. 10 Vanderbilt Commodores
No. 2 Tennessee Volunteers vs. No. 15 Bryant Bulldogs*
The more games that pass, the more it seems inevitable that Houston will end up on the No. 1 line. To be 18–1 in a conference like the Big 12 is one of the more impressive feats by any team this season, and the Cougars’ metrics are elite across the board. They can almost assuredly afford another loss and still end up as the No. 3 overall seed.
One of the first conference tournaments to get underway is the Sun Belt, which debuted a new bracket this year with a complicated series of byes that makes the league’s worst teams win seven games in seven days to steal a bid. The goal is to protect top seeds like South Alabama, which will need just two wins to punch a ticket to March. The only issue: The regular season ended with a four-way tie for first place, and the losers of the tiebreak in Arkansas State and Troy ended up having to play an extra game despite being the league’s two best teams from an analytical standpoint. It will be interesting to see if other leagues attempt to mimic this format going forward as conferences try to set up their best teams in the most advantageous positions to go dancing.
West Region
No. 1 Florida Gators vs. No. 16 Omaha Mavericks*
No. 8 Kansas Jayhawks vs. No. 9 Georgia Bulldogs
No. 5 Oregon Ducks vs. No. 12 Arkansas Razorbacks/Xavier Musketeers
No. 4 Arizona Wildcats vs. No. 13 Lipscomb Bisons*
No. 6 BYU Cougars vs. No. 11 UC San Diego Tritons*
No. 3 Texas A&M Aggies vs. No. 14 Utah Valley Wolverines*
No. 7 Saint Mary’s Gaels* vs. No. 10 West Virginia Mountaineers
No. 2 Michigan State Spartans* vs. No. 15 Central Connecticut Blue Devils*
Florida is back on the No. 1 line after winning at Alabama on Wednesday. The Gators’ résumé isn’t quite as deep as some of their SEC counterparts, but the top-end wins are elite with road wins at Auburn and Alabama and a split with Tennessee. Wednesday’s win combined with Tennessee’s loss to Ole Miss was the deciding factor.
No team is rising faster than BYU, now a No. 6 seed in our projection just a few weeks after sweating on the bubble. Elite road wins at Arizona and Iowa State can change your fortunes in a hurry, and the Cougars have played like one of the best teams in the sport over the last four weeks. It seems unlikely that they can climb into the top-four seed lines, but this is quickly becoming a team that no one will want to see in their region on Selection Sunday.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Men’s Bracket Watch: Florida Back As One-Seed, Bubble Teams Eye Regular-Season Finales.