TAMPA, Fla. (WFLA) — The tropics have been bustling with activity. Free from Saharan dust, several tropical waves have rolled off the coast of Africa in the last few weeks. But is this trend expected to continue, and could this season see more storms than expected?
Plumes of Saharan dust — dry, dusty air carried from the Sahara Desert — are known to stabilize the atmosphere and prevent tropical activity.
These plumes typically form over the Sahara Desert during the late spring, summer, and early fall.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) says Saharan dust activity typically ramps up in mid-June and peaks from late June to mid-August, with new outbreaks every three to five days.
“Last year at this time we talked a lot about Saharan dust,” Max Defender 8 Meteorologist Amanda Holly said. “We had dense plumes rolling off the coast. We just haven’t had a lot of dust this year. We’re starting to see the first major plume of dust just now, though.”
Because the dusty air has about 50% less moisture than the typical tropical atmosphere, strong downdrafts rip apart any tropical wave unfortunate enough to be caught in clasps.
NOAA says Saharan dust usually occupies a 2 to 2.5-mile-thick layer of the atmosphere.
Holly said we haven’t seen much Saharan dust due to an area of high pressure in the mid-Atlantic.
“That area of high pressure, it kicks up those winds and pulls that dust across the Atlantic and pushes it over to the U.S. But because the area of high pressure has been very weak — well, weak winds lead to less dust.”
“As we start to see the first few plumes of Saharan dust move toward the Gulf, we’re going to continue to see a quieter start to the year until about August until Saharan dust tends to start to wane off until the early fall,” WCBD Meteorologist Olivia Lawrence said.
Regardless of what’s ahead, NOAA says it will be watching to improve future forecasts and plan aircraft research missions.
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